The Federal Government has released the Australia's National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: Update report which provides estimates of Australia's national greenhouse gas inventory based on the latest available data and the accounting rules that apply for the Kyoto Protocol.

 

Preliminary estimates and trends in Australia's National Inventory up to the March quarter of 2011 are shown in the report.

 

The quarterly National Inventory estimates includes emission sources listed under Annex A of the Kyoto Protocol – energy, industrial processes, agriculture and waste sectors – but does not include emissions from the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities under article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, for which data are not yet available.

 

These preliminary emission estimates have been compiled by the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency using the estimation methodologies incorporated in the Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System (AGEIS) in conjunction with a range of other activity and economic indicators. Seasonal adjustment and trend analysis is conducted using the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) SEASABS tool.

 

The report shows that emissions for the 12 months to March 2011 were 0.6% lower than the previous 12 months reflecting in particular a decrease in black coal generation and an increase in generation from natural gas and hydroelectricity sources.

 

Climatic factors have been important in affecting emissions in key sectors such as electricity generation. For example, a record wet spring in 2010 resulted in high levels of hydroelectricity generation, lowering emissions. Over the short term, as normal seasonal conditions resume, emissions from electricity generation are likely to rebound due to underlying increases in economic growth, population and industrial production.

 

A rebound has been evident in the latest quarterly data, which shows trend emissions rising by 0.5% in the March quarter, as the temporary fuel switching seen in recent quarters has been reversed to a certain extent. Black coal and natural gas generation increased for the quarter as hydro generation decreased.

 

Quarterly Change in Emissions – Key Points

 

  • Positive growth in seasonally adjusted emissions in the March quarter is mainly due to a rebound in emissions from electricity generation.

  • Trend emissions for the March quarter, which account for seasonal factors, rose 0.5%, mainly as a result of electricity generation fuel switching back from hydro electricity to black coal – a reversal of the previous quarter's temporary trend.
  • Hydroelectricity generation on the National Electricity Market (NEM) fell in the March quarter from a historical peak in the December 2010 quarter.

  • Black coal generation recovered by 11.9% in the March quarter, following a fall of 11.4% in the December 2010 quarter. Generation from brown coal remained relatively steady while natural gas generation increased by 6.9%.
  • In line with historical trends for March quarters, aggregate emissions from other sectors fell on the previous quarter. The largest falls occurred in fugitive emissions and industrial processes.

  • Fugitive emissions associated with coal mining fell markedly, recording a 20% drop from the December 2010 quarter. This unusual fall correlates with a 21% reduction in Australian black coal mining for the March quarter, attributed to extensive flooding in Queensland.

  • The falls in black coal mining activity were focused on Queensland, where coal mine flooding contributed to a 36% drop in output for the March quarter. Coal mining in NSW and Qld accounted for 96.2% of national coal mining in the March 2011 quarter.


Annual Emissions to March Quarter – Key points

  • Over the four quarters to the March quarter of 2011, Australia's national inventory was an estimated 542 Mt CO2-e (million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent), down 0.6% on the previous year.

  • For the year to the March quarter, emissions have continued to decline from electricity generation and agriculture. This has been offset by growth in emissions from transport, other stationary energy, industrial processes and waste. Annual fugitive emissions are temporarily lower, with coal mining activities disrupted by the recent floods in Queensland.

  • The current negative year on year growth is largely attributed to reductions in emissions from electricity generation. Whilst emissions have risen in the March quarter, it has not been sufficient to offset this recent annual trend. Electricity generation represents approximately 36% of the national quarterly inventory.

  • Emissions from electricity declined by 3.9% on the previous year, as climate and policy factors influence both demand and supply components of the electricity markets. The significant decline is the result of sustained negative movements in emissions from electricity generation over multiple quarters.

  • Increases year on year in generation in the NEM from lower emission technologies, including hydro (33% annual increase in generation) and natural gas (22% annual increase in generation), are offsetting an 8% decline in generation from black coal.

  • While growth in emissions from industrial processes has slowed in recent quarters, the recovery from the 2009 drop in production continues to produce high year on year emissions growth numbers. Iron and steel emission are up 20%, correlating with ABARES estimates that iron and steel production for the year to March 2011 was 7258 kt (while this is up 20% on the previous year due to the recovery, it is largely a return to historical levels).

  • Emissions from stationary energy other than electricity have risen by 2.7 Mt CO2-e (3.0%), driven by increases in emissions from the production of non-ferrous metals and iron and steel. This reflects a 7.5% growth in manufacturing of metal products for the year to March 2011.

 

The next quarterly estimates including latest estimates from the June 2011 will be released on 31st October 2011.

 

Further information is available at http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/climate-change/emissions.aspx