The Bureau of Meteorology has raised its El Niño alert, heightening concerns of drought and bushfires. 

The Bureau has upgraded its status from El Niño Watch to El Niño Alert, indicating a higher likelihood of an El Niño event unfolding this year. 

While the tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are expected to reach El Niño levels during winter, there is still a need for further strengthening and sustaining of the atmospheric changes to confirm an El Niño event. 

In Australia, El Niño typically brings drier conditions to the eastern regions and above-average temperatures to the southern two-thirds of the country. 

The Bureau's long-range winter forecast aligns with this, projecting drier and warmer conditions across most of Australia. 

The shift to El Niño Alert does not alter the existing forecast, which predicts below-average rainfall for the country.

The Bureau's long-range forecasts incorporate various factors, including ocean and land temperatures, wind patterns, and global conditions such as the tropical Indian Ocean. Experts warn that if an El Niño event materialises, it could increase the risk of extreme heat, bushfires, reduced rainfall in eastern Australia, decreased alpine snow depths, and a delayed start to the northern wet season. 

However, the specific strength and impacts of the event remain uncertain.

There is growing consensus among international models about the impending El Niño, and prolonged absence of El Niño and consecutive La Niña events have left the landscape prone to bushfires due to significant fuel growth.

If the forecasts hold true, this would mark the first El Niño event in Australia since 2015/16. 

Authorities and communities will closely monitor the situation and prepare for potential drought conditions and increased bushfire risks.